Tariffs, phone calls and power plays: How two lobbyists are shaping US-India-Pakistan relations

Washington is no longer about Democrats or Republicans. It’s about who’s “in” and who’s “out.” This is the new reality, and India may be learning it the hard way. After a recent tariff dispute with the US, questions have surfaced over whether India’s lobbyist is cutting through the noise or if Pakistan’s man in Washington has the upper hand.

Back in May, India brought in Jason Miller through his firm SHW Partners, signing a hefty $1.8 million deal for a year’s work. Miller is no stranger to Trump; he advised the President during his campaigns in 2016, 2020, and now 2024. His mandate is clear: provide strategic advice, plan tactics, and manage relations with Congress and other US stakeholders.

Meanwhile, Pakistan hired Keith Schiller, Trump's former bodyguard and Director of Oval Office Operations. Schiller’s firm, Javelin Associates, charges a comparatively modest $50,000 per month. He’s been close to Trump for over two decades and runs Javelin alongside George Sorial, a former Trump Organization counsel.

While both men are tagged as “Trump whisperers,” recent developments suggest Schiller’s influence is resonating more with the President than Miller’s.

The power play on tariffs and diplomacy
Look at the recent moves: Trump invited Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, for a White House luncheon, a rare nod. Meanwhile, India faced a 25% tariff, with a further punitive 25% penalty looming if it continues buying Russian oil. Pakistan’s tariff is much lower, at 19%. This tilt raises eyebrows in New Delhi, signalling that Schiller’s connections may be carrying more weight.

But insiders caution against over-simplifying the story. One White House official noted the term “Trump whisperer” is misleading because Trump ultimately calls his own shots, driven by what he believes benefits America. Schiller, they say, left his White House post in 2017 after less than a year, and his closeness to Trump is sometimes overstated. Miller, meanwhile, turned down a White House communications director role after 2016, so he’s not exactly inside the Oval Office anymore either.

Golf, calls and the real levers of influence
The best lobbyists? Foreign leaders themselves. Trump loves personal calls and face-to-face meetings. It’s about ego, investment promises, and even golf. Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe famously bonded with Trump over golf, and South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol reportedly took up the sport to connect better.

India, however, is more about cricket than golf, and it hasn’t exactly scored a hole-in-one. Prime Minister Modi declined Trump’s White House invitation on the day Pakistan’s army chief was hosted. Modi’s tough stance on tariffs and Russian oil, coupled with limited engagement, reportedly ruffled Trump’s feathers.

As reported by TOI, an Indian diplomat explained, “The Prime Minister does not negotiate on tariffs over the phone. He leaves it to the negotiating.” But the reality is, Trump’s approach often favours the personal, sometimes punishing those who don’t play along.

When direct access can backfire
Washington is littered with examples of leaders who lost out after calls or visits. South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa was publicly embarrassed, and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky faced humiliation in the Oval Office. On the flip side, calls from Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum and Vietnam’s Lo Tam bought their countries some breathing room with tariffs.

Switzerland’s President Karin Keller-Sutter recently flew in to try and avoid a 39% tariff but failed to meet anyone influential. She left empty-handed after only seeing a Secretary of State with no trade authority.

This reflects a broader trend. Countries are spending millions to lobby Washington since Trump’s return to office, but results are mixed at best. Politico reported 30 countries hired new lobbyists this year alone, including Pakistan’s seven firms, with Schiller’s team helping to lower tariff rates. India, despite its big contract with Miller, seems to be struggling to influence outcomes.

What’s behind the lobbying scene?
Jason Miller’s story is rooted in long-term political experience. Born in the mid-1970s in Washington state, he rose through Republican circles, managing campaigns and advising various candidates before joining Trump’s team. His firm’s contract with India covers strategic advice and government relations, but six months in, the results seem underwhelming.

Keith Schiller’s profile is different. A former NYPD detective and Trump’s trusted bodyguard, he knows Trump personally and has been part of his inner circle. His firm’s smaller fee and hands-on approach seem to be paying off for Pakistan.

Mukesh Aghi, CEO of the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum, captured the essence when he said, “The current leadership in Washington seems to be disrupting the traditional way of doing things. It’s not just about the business part, it’s about diplomacy, it’s about dealing with other nations. I think the whole old model of trying to influence does not seem to work.”

This sums up the challenge. Influence isn’t just about who you hire; it’s about how you connect, adapt, and play the game.